Bin Laden: Master Progagandist
[Scroll down for second story: "Is Bin Laden Playing Poker with Bush?"]There is no disputing that this was another audacious media and political coup of a high order.
The most wanted man in the world has proved again that he has an unrivalled ability to cock a snook at the American-led global manhunt against him.
Like it or not, yesterday's tape will burnish his legend with his admirers and enemies alike.
GLORIFYING BIN LADEN AS LEADER OF RADICAL ISLAM
With the timing and panache of a diabolical Scarlet Pimpernel, Osama bin Laden reminded the world yesterday that he is still out there and that he continues to shape the global political agenda as few others.
Of course, there are searching questions to ask about the authenticity and timing of the al-Qaida leader's latest tape before the rest of the world can make a balanced judgment about Bin Laden's message.
But there is no disputing that this was another audacious media and political coup of a high order.
The most wanted man in the world has proved again that he has an unrivalled ability to cock a snook at the American-led global manhunt against him. Like it or not, yesterday's tape will burnish his legend with his admirers and enemies alike.
There seem, at first sight, to be four noteworthy aspects to his latest act of electronic defiance. The first is simply the reminder that Bin Laden is still in the game. It is nearly 14 months since his last taped message.
The whole of 2005 passed without a public word from him. There had been speculation that this silence implied he was either dead, seriously ill or cornered.
Now, at the start of a new year, that suddenly looks like yet another example of the familiar over-optimism that has characterised much of the US-led war on terror since 9/11.
The second is the striking timing of a taped message. It is less than a week since the American airstrikes on the Pakistani village of Damadola, aimed at killing Bin Laden's deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.
This may be pure good luck for al-Qaida - the logistical difficulties of getting such a tape into the hands of the broadcaster al-Jazeera without detection make it unlikely that the tape was made in the past week - but the timing enables Bin Laden to thumb his nose at his pursuers yet again.
But it is not just the fact of the message that matters. It is also its content. The two things that stand out here are the al-Qaida carrot and stick.
The carrot is a so-called truce offer, in which the United States and its allies apparently withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan in return for some kind of al-Qaida ceasefire in the west.
This will not be to be treated as a genuine truce offer, for it would provide al-Qaida with the time, space and place to resume planning a renewed terror campaign.
There is, though, a political claim in this message that cannot be completely disregarded, designed to play into a naïve belief in some parts of the west that negotiations with Bin Laden may offer a way out of the terror and security-dominated world in which we now live.
The final point follows from this. At the heart of Bin Laden's message is the threat to unleash further terror attacks on American citizens in their homeland.
Far from provoking a movement to appease the terrorists, this will surely do the reverse. It will play directly into the hands of those who insist that security must overwhelm all other considerations.
It should not. Specifically, after yesterday's leak from the Foreign Office, it should not undermine the continuing anxiety about possible British involvement in the transport of terror suspects to third countries where they risk torture.
The Foreign Office memorandum revealed no doubt in official minds of the illegality of ignoring due process in the transport of terrorist suspects to countries where they might be tortured.
Hence the importance of Condoleezza Rice's assurances that the US will not act in breach of its own constitutional disavowal of torture, a much narrower definition than the obligations imposed by the UN convention against torture or the European convention on human rights.
It may mean what is legal there would not be here. Ms Rice says Europe is helping it take terrorists out of circulation. The government insists it has no evidence of rendition flights. It might prefer not to resolve this contradiction. Bin Laden's intervention should not let it off the hook. [Editorial @ Guardian]
IS BIN LADEN PLAYING POKER WITH BUSH?Ever since the CIA confirmed that it's Bin Laden on that tape, I've been wondering whether he's a poker player. Gambling seems out of character for the puritanical radical, but then he reportedly abhors television (both seeing it and being seen on it) as un-Islamic, yet he does it when it suits him.
Islam also forbids killing civilians, according to its more moderate leaders*, so he'll obviously bend the rules when it serves his purpose.
By his own admission, the War in Iraq has been his best recruiting tool. That statement is confirmed by the National Intelligence Council, which says Iraq is now germinating a new generation of "professionalized" mujahideen. It provides "a training ground, a recruitment ground, the opportunity for enhancing technical skills,"says a senior NIC officer.
Why would Osama speak up now? Every time he's made a public announcement in the past, including during the 2004 election, the perception has been that it's boosted support for his adversary Bush. Is that why he's talking again after a long silence?
After all, Bush's popularity has plummeted and Americans have turned against the war. Adoption of the Murtha proposal, for example, could remove the despised Great Satan from Iraq and reduce the steady flow of new terrorists.
So is it possible that Osama's playing a poker hand? After all, why wouldn't he want the war to keep going? Some will say that this tape is a CIA forgery.
That's possible, since it takes more than one to play poker. But it may be even more possible that it's genuine. Either way, the objective could be to bolster support for the occupation and weaken the antiwar movement.
Some dark-minded individuals thought that Bush was playing exactly the same game when he endorsed the reform political slate in Iran.
That boosted the popularity of the radicals and led to the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who makes a perfect silent-movie villian. That's a great set-up for military action against Iran.
Osama could be making a similar move here. I can see the right-wingers rubbing their hands over their keyboards now. "Osama and Murtha, birds of a feather." "Bin Laden and Kennedy: Together Again." "Osama and Cindy Sheehan Found in Peacenik Love Nest." Whatever.
So Osama may be using a little reverse psychology. It's time for a military strategy that addresses the real terrorist threats against us, one that doesn't leave the other side holding so many cards.