Pakistan: Musharraf's Second Military Coup [Clip]
The US now finds itself with
few good options and dwindling power
to influence events in the nuclear-armed state
Experts believe Musharraf's actions may
have ensured his demise as a national leader
"The train is derailed and off the tracks
We have to give ourselves a share of
the responsibility for this
We placed all of our chips on Musharraf"
The Bush Regime must now start "from the premise
that he's gone, whether the people chuck him out
or the military chucks him out"
I would be very surprised if he lasts even six months."
The Bush Regime should be blamed for sending
"mixed messages" to Musharraf in recent months,
allowing him to believe he could weather
the fallout from a declaration of emergency powers
Desperate Musharraf [Original]
In August, a 2 a.m. phone call from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice helped pull President Pervez Musharraf from the brink of declaring a state of emergency in Pakistan. Two days ago, Rice made a similar plea. This time, the Pakistani president was not swayed.
Musharraf's decision to suspend his nation's Constitution and declare emergency rule Saturday poses a sharp setback for U.S. efforts to push Pakistan toward democracy, and it calls into question Bush's unstinting support for Musharraf despite the general's growing unpopularity and inability to counter hard-line militants.
The United States now finds itself with few good options and dwindling power to influence events in the nuclear-armed state, particularly because experts believe Musharraf's actions may have ensured his demise as a national leader.
"The train is derailed and off the tracks," said Stephen Cohen, author of "The Idea of Pakistan." "We have to give ourselves a share of the responsibility for this. We placed all of our chips on Musharraf."
At this point, he added, "I don't think there is anything we can do. We are not big players in this anymore."
The Bush Regime has given Pakistan $10 billion in aid since 2001, much of it military assistance.
If the state of emergency drags on, bush will be faced with the difficult decision of whether to cut off that aid and risk undermining Pakistan's efforts to pursue terrorists - a move the White House believes could endanger the security of the United States.
Some analysts cautioned that if the United States is perceived as withdrawing support for Musharraf, it may increase the risk of a civil war and the shattering of Pakistan.
Rice, who called Musharraf on Friday and warned him against taking this step, said Saturday that his actions were "highly regrettable," telling reporters traveling with her that:
"The United States has made clear it does not support extra-constitutional measures because those measures would take Pakistan away from the path of democracy and civilian rule."
U.S. officials appeared taken aback by Musharraf's move, but quickly shifted from expressions of dismay to resignation, insisting that any "extra-constitutional measures" be brief.
There was no suggestion of immediate cuts in aid. Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman called Musharraf's declaration unfortunate, but said it "has not had an immediate impact on the way we coordinate" with the Pakistani military.
The Bush Regime must now start "from the premise that he's gone, whether the people chuck him out or the military chucks him out," said Xenia Dormandy, who until last year was the National Security Council's director for South Asia. "I would be very surprised if he lasts even six months."
Dormandy faulted the Bush administration for sending "mixed messages" to Musharraf in recent months, allowing him to believe he could weather the fallout from a declaration of emergency powers.
Bush has long been a firm supporter of Musharraf, believing he was a "strong partner" in the fight against terrorism who put his life at risk after he dramatically switched sides and opposed the Taliban in Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States.
Musharraf's democratic credentials have been less than ideal for an administration that publicly champions the cause of freedom.
He seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 and has never fulfilled a pledge to give up his position as army chief while serving as president. But the administration rarely challenged him openly to support more rapid democratization.
Even on countering terrorism, Musharraf has proven to be a disappointment. Despite years of effort, only a handful of top al Qaeda figures have been captured in the unruly border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Negotiated settlements Musharraf reached last year with armed Islamic groups and tribal leaders in North and South Waziristan, in which he pledged to pull back troops from the border areas if the tribes kept al Qaeda and foreign fighters out, turned into a bad bet that instead allowed insurgents to gather strength and to begin challenging the government in other parts of the country.
There has long been a deep fear within the administration, particularly among intelligence officials, that an imperfect Musharraf is better for U.S. interests than an unknown in a volatile country that is central to the administration's fight against terrorism.
In recent months, the White House had been hoping that a power-sharing alliance between Musharraf and Pakistan's former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, would help the general cling to power while putting a democratic face on his regime.
"The coup in Pakistan is a body blow to the administration's efforts to arrange a shotgun marriage between Musharraf and Bhutto that would have given the appearance of a broadening of Pakistani politics," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst and national security council staff member now at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center.
"Instead of a more democratic Pakistan, we will have a more authoritarian Pakistan. Instead of a more stable Pakistan fighting al Qaeda, we will have a military regime fighting for its survival."
Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the current situation could easily plunge Pakistan into chaos, leading to an increase in violence by Islamic fundamentalists or provoking demonstrations by opposition political parties.
"You could have chaos in the street, or a situation where it would be suicidal for Bhutto to try to participate in the process," he said, adding, "Either of those scenarios puts the U.S. in a very difficult position."
Virtual Martial Law [Original]
In what is a virtual martial law, President Pervez Musharraf, acting as army chief, on Saturday imposed a state of emergency throughout Pakistan, suspended the Constitution and replaced superior courts in a move that could put the country�s political future into disarray.
In his proclamation of emergency, the general blamed growing violence by militants and a judiciary which he said was working at "cross purposes" with his government and the legislature for his most drastic action since he seized power in an October 12, 1999 coup.
A Provisional Constitutional Order was also issued, putting the Constitution in "abeyance" but saying the country would be "governed, as nearly as may be, in accordance with the Constitution" although seven of its articles relating to fundamental rights would remain suspended, and empowering the president to amend the document "as is deemed expedient�".
The move, greeted with immediate condemnation at home by opposition parties, lawyers and human rights groups and concern from �war on terror� allies like the United States and Britain, came only 12 days before the expiration of General Musharraf�s presidency and the present assemblies.
While an 11-judge bench of the Supreme Court was in a weekend recess in its hearing of challenges to his election for another five-year presidential term mainly on grounds of his army office.
General Musharraf seemed to have run out of other political and constitutional options as he took one of the most extraordinary steps by a ruler in 60 years of Pakistan's life, putting aside not only the Constitution but also his own sweeping powers as president and preferring to act as Chief of the Army Staff.
The emergency proclamation said a situation had arisen where the �government of the country cannot be carried out in accordance with the Constitution� and �the Constitution provides no solution for this situation�.
However, the present federal and provincial governments, both houses of parliament and the provincial assemblies were kept intact.
CHARGE-SHEET AGAINST JUDICIARY:
While it started with what it called �visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks� as grounds for the action, the proclamation contained a long charge-sheet against the superior judiciary some of whose members, it said,
"Are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism, thereby weakening the government and the nation�s resolve and diluting the efficacy of its actions to control this menace.
"... (T)here has been increasing interference by some members of the judiciary in government policy, adversely affecting economic growth, in particular," it said, adding that there was "constant interference in executive functions."
It also blamed the judiciary's interference for having "weakened the writ of the government, the police force ... been completely demoralised and ...fast losing its efficacy to fight terrorism, and intelligence agencies ... thwarted in their activities and prevented from pursuing terrorists."
While �some hard core militants, extremists, terrorists and suicide bombers, who were arrested and being investigated were ordered to be released,� it said and added:
"The persons so released have subsequently been involved in heinous terrorist activities, resulting in loss of human life and property. Militants across the country have, thus, been encouraged while law enforcement agencies (were) subdued."
CONSULTATIONS:
The proclamation said the general acted after reviews of the situation in meetings with the prime minister, governors of all four provinces, armed forces chiefs and army corps commanders.
"Now, therefore, in pursuance of the deliberations and decisions of the said meetings, I General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of the Army Staff, proclaim emergency throughout Pakistan," it said.
"I hereby order and proclaim that the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan shall remain in abeyance.'
BLOW TO JUDICIARY:
The emergency proclamation's charges against judicial activism, which were immediately followed by change of command at the Supreme Court as well as changes in provincial high courts, appeared aimed at reversing what was hailed as a revival of independence of the judiciary after months of an epic movement led by lawyers since the president suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry on March 9.
Justice Iftikhar, who was reinstated by a bench of Supreme Court judges on July 20, and several of his colleagues got marching orders under the new Provisional Constitution Order (PCO) though some of them put up a last-ditch resistance by holding the action void.
The proclamation accused "some" unspecified judges of the superior courts of �overstepping the limits of judicial authority� and having �taken over the executive and legislative functions�.
The references seemed to be mainly directed at Justice Iftikhar and his colleagues for some of their actions against government officials and pursuance of the cases of missing people allegedly detained by intelligence agencies.
The fundamental rights suspended by the PCO related to security of persons (article 9) safeguard as to arrest and detention (article 10), freedom of movement (article 15), freedom of assembly, (article 16) freedom of association (article 17), freedom of speech (article 19), and equality of citizens (article 25).
It said the Supreme Court or a high court or any other court "shall not have the power to make any order against the president or the prime minister or any persons exercising powers or jurisdiction under their authority".