Hubris and overreach could play a role in a hypothetical Obama defeat, with voters getting turned off by the quasi-millennial aspects of the Obama ascendancy.
This includes an oration before 200,000 Germans and an acceptance speech to be delivered to 70,000 chanting Democrats in a Denver football stadium that will have to do since Mount Sinai is unavailable.
You don't have to be a Republican to think it's more than a little over the top.
Obama fatigue could factor into a possible Obama defeat as millions of Americans get tired of seeing Obama's face and hearing his measured baritone "eloquence" over and over and over again.
We are now technically into the fifth year of the Obama phenomenon, launched during the Democratic National Convention in late July of 2004.
Obama is over-exposed at this point, even as most Americans (including many of his supporters) know amazingly little about his actual public record and world view.
A recent Pew poll finds that nearly half (48 percent) U.S. voters say that they "have been hearing too much about Obama lately." Just barely more than a quarter (26 percent) of Pew's respondents said they had heard too much about McCain.
Team Obama has recently demonstrated some remarkably controlling and prickly behavior towards the press.
This could be a big mistake. If it isn't more careful about ruffling dominant media egos, the Obama camp could do significant damage to the "Obama Love" proffered by a corporate media that retains a soft spot for the supposed "maverick" McCain.
As Gabriel Sherman noted in The New Republic in late July, "Reporters are grumbling more and more that the campaign is acting like the Prom Queen.
They gripe that it is ‘arrogant' and ‘control[ling],' and the campaign's own belief that Obama is poised to make history isn't endearing, either.
The press certainly helped Obama get so far so fast; the question is, how far can he get if his campaign alienates them?"